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BGS Global Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

Forecast period
(noon-to-noon GMT) 		Forecast Global Activity level
Average Max
3 MAY-4 MAY QUIET STORM G1
4 MAY-5 MAY ACTIVE STORM G2
5 MAY-6 MAY QUIET STORM G1

For more information about the forecast and activity categories see
geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/activitylevels.html

Activity during last 24 hours

Global   Local (UK)
Date Average Max At time (UTC) Average Max At time (UTC)
2 MAY-3 MAY STORM G1 STORM G3 18:00-21:00 STORM G1 STORM G3 18:00-21:00

Additional Comments

Geomagnetic activity has been enhanced in the past 24 hrs, reaching up to STORM G3 levels. This appears to be from an early arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from 29-Apr, possibly combining with coronal hole high-speed stream effects, however there is some uncertainty in this. Solar wind speeds are declining, however we may continue to see some residual effects from this throughout the first day, with a chance of geomagnetic activity reaching up to STORM G1 levels.
Over the weekend, a glancing blow from a CME lifting from the Sun on 01-May is possible in combination with a new coronal hole high-speed stream. ACTIVE conditions are anticipated from this, with a chance of STORM G1 to G2 possible during the second day and residual effects continuing into the last day.
Further CMEs have been observed in the past 24hrs, however additional imagery is required to determine if these will have any Earth-directed components.
Time of forecast: 03 May 2024
© UKRI